Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study
Schuckmann S, Gnatzy T, Darkow IL, von der Gracht H (2012)
Publication Type: Journal article, Original article
Subtype: other
Publication year: 2012
Journal
Book Volume: 79
Pages Range: 1373-1387
Journal Issue: 8
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162512001382
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.008
Abstract
In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.
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Germany (DE)
Switzerland (CH)How to cite
APA:
Schuckmann, S., Gnatzy, T., Darkow, I.-L., & von der Gracht, H. (2012). Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(8), 1373-1387. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.008
MLA:
Schuckmann, Stefan, et al. "Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79.8 (2012): 1373-1387.
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