Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays

van der Veere PJ, van Harten AC, van Maurik IS, Teunissen CE, Barkhof F, Vos SJ, Froelich L, Kornhuber J, Wiltfang J, Maier W, Peters O, Rüther E, Frisoni GB, Spiru L, Freund-Levi Y, Wallin ÅK, Hampel H, Tsolaki M, Kłoszewska I, Mecocci P, Vellas B, Lovestone S, Galluzzi S, Herukka SK, Santana I, Baldeiras I, de Mendonca A, Silva D, Chetelat G, Poisnel G, Visser PJ, Johnson SC, Stormrud E, Hansson O, Palmqvist S, Piñol-Ripoll G, Berkhof J, van der Flier WM (2026)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2026

Journal

Book Volume: 22

Article Number: e71192

Journal Issue: 2

DOI: 10.1002/alz.71192

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform. METHODS: We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66–0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants. DISCUSSION: We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.

Authors with CRIS profile

Involved external institutions

CNC Center for Neuroscience and Cell Biology Portugal (PT) Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Greece (GR) University of Oxford United Kingdom (GB) Normandy University / Normandie Université France (FR) University of Wisconsin - Madison United States (USA) (US) Lund University / Lunds universitet Sweden (SE) Amsterdam Neuroscience Netherlands (NL) Northwest Clinics / Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep Netherlands (NL) Pitié-Salpêtrière University Hospital / Hôpital universitaire Pitié-Salpêtrière France (FR) Amsterdam University Medical Centers (Amsterdam UMC) / Amsterdam Universitair Medische Centra Netherlands (NL) Maastricht University Netherlands (NL) Universitätsklinikum Mannheim / University Medical Centre Mannheim (Universitätsmedizin Mannheim) Germany (DE) Universitätsklinikum Göttingen Germany (DE) Berliner Institut für Gesundheitsforschung in der Charité / Berlin Institute of Health at Charité (BIH) Germany (DE) Geneva University Hospitals / Hôpitaux universitaires de Genève (HUG) Switzerland (CH) Örebro University Sweden (SE) Karolinska Institute Sweden (SE) Centre Hospitalier Universitaire (CHU) de Toulouse France (FR) IRCCS Fatebenefratelli - Brescia Italy (IT) Kuopio University Hospital / Pohjois-Savon sairaanhoitopiiri Finland (FI) University of Lisbon / Universidade de Lisboa (ULisboa) Portugal (PT) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) / University Amsterdam Netherlands (NL) Hospital Universitari de Santa Maria Spain (ES) Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn Germany (DE) Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy / Universitatea de Medicină și Farmacie „Carol Davila” (UMF București) Romania (RO) Medical University of Łódź / Uniwersytet Medyczny w Łodzi Poland (PL)

How to cite

APA:

van der Veere, P.J., van Harten, A.C., van Maurik, I.S., Teunissen, C.E., Barkhof, F., Vos, S.J.,... van der Flier, W.M. (2026). Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays. Alzheimers & Dementia, 22(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.71192

MLA:

van der Veere, Pieter J., et al. "Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays." Alzheimers & Dementia 22.2 (2026).

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