Energy system planning and operation for emerging countries, the case of Iraq

The transition to sustainable electricity systems in many emerging countries is constrained by limited access to capital, fuel supply bottlenecks, and underdeveloped infrastructure-factors often insufficiently represented in energy system modelling. This study presents a high-resolution electricity system framework that explicitly captures these challenges. Using a mixed-integer linear programming formulation with hourly temporal and regional spatial resolution, the model jointly optimizes investment and operation of generation and transmission infrastructure under alternative financing regimes.

To illustrate its specific applicability, we consider the case of Iraq, a fragile, oil-dependent economy facing severe electricity shortages and growing demand. Three financing scenarios are examined: limited public investment, participation of independent power producers, and access to high-interest international capital. Results show that strict financing constraints lead to extensive load curtailment and high system costs, whereas alternative financing options enable renewable deployment, eliminate curtailment, reduce emissions, and substantially lower total system costs.

Overall, the study demonstrates how explicitly accounting for financial and fuel constraints in optimization models can support effective energy planning in emerging economies, offering transferable insights for the Global South.