Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales

Fastovich D, Meyers SR, Saupe EE, Williams JW, Dornelas M, Dowding E, Finnegan S, Huang HHM, Jonkers L, Kießling W, Kocsis Á, Li Q, Liow LH, Na L, Penny AM, Pippenger K, Renaudie J, Rillo MC, Smith J, Steinbauer MJ, Sugawara M, Tomašových A, Yasuhara M, Hull PM (2025)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2025

Journal

Book Volume: 389

Pages Range: 64-68

Journal Issue: 6755

DOI: 10.1126/science.adr6700

Abstract

Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis–based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 10¹ to 10⁵ years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149⁻¹ to 18,012⁻¹ year⁻¹, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797⁻¹ year⁻¹) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4650⁻¹ year⁻¹) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149⁻¹ year⁻¹ may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity.

Authors with CRIS profile

Involved external institutions

Syracuse University United States (USA) (US) University of Wisconsin - Madison United States (USA) (US) University of Oxford United Kingdom (GB) University of St Andrews United Kingdom (GB) University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) United States (USA) (US) Princeton University United States (USA) (US) MARUM – Zen­trum für Mar­ine Um­weltwis­senschaften Germany (DE) 中国科学院南京地质古生物研究所 / Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology (NIGPAS) China (CN) University of Oslo Norway (NO) University of Edinburgh United Kingdom (GB) Yale University United States (USA) (US) Museum für Naturkunde Germany (DE) Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg Germany (DE) University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) United States (USA) (US) Universität Bayreuth Germany (DE) University of British Columbia Canada (CA) Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS) / Slovenská akadémia vied (SAV) Slovakia (SK) University of Hong Kong (HKU) / 香港大學 Hong Kong (HK)

How to cite

APA:

Fastovich, D., Meyers, S.R., Saupe, E.E., Williams, J.W., Dornelas, M., Dowding, E.,... Hull, P.M. (2025). Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales. Science, 389(6755), 64-68. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adr6700

MLA:

Fastovich, David, et al. "Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales." Science 389.6755 (2025): 64-68.

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