Hybrid renewable energy system optimization to mitigate climate vulnerability of Nepal's run-of-river hydro grid
Poudel P, Neupane N, Chaudhary Y, Devkota S, Lohani SP, Uprety B (2025)
Publication Language: English
Publication Type: Journal article
Publication year: 2025
Journal
Book Volume: 129
Article Number: 117311
DOI: 10.1016/j.est.2025.117311
Abstract
This study explores hybrid configurations integrating solar PV, biomass gasification, hydrogen fuel cells, pumped hydro storage and batteries to address seasonal deficits and climate vulnerability, using Nepal's hydropower-dependent energy sector as a reference case. Further, the hybrid combinations were optimized to identify the most cost-effective configurations based on electricity demand and generation trends forecasted through 2043. SARIMA model was utilized to forecast the electricity trends based on historical data. Among the configurations, PV-PHS-GS system achieved the lowest LCOE of 0.0849 USD/kWh with PHS supporting long term storage and gasifier ensuring reliability. This value is closest to the PPA price of 0.067 USD/kWh set by Nepal Electricity Authority for the dry season. The PV-BAT-GS system demonstrated efficiency in addressing daily fluctuations with minimal gasifier reliance, yielding an LCOE of 0.10045 USD/kWh. Conversely, the PV-P2H2P-GS system, despite its innovative hydrogen storage approach, incurred the highest LCOE of 0.7218 USD/kWh. Sensitivity analysis revealed that PV-P2H2P-GS system is highly dependent on electricity tariffs and hydrogen selling price, suggesting opportunities for cost reduction. These findings emphasize trade-offs among cost, reliability and storage strategies across configurations. The system's robustness was assessed by imposing a 5–25 % shortfall in SARIMA-forecasted hydro energy, showing energy shortages only in 2024 for shortfalls of 5–15 %, while up to 25 % shortfalls extended shortages into the first three years, indicating strong reliability under stress. Policy interventions such as adjusted PPA rates, subsidies and incentives for hydrogen adoption are essential to enhance financial viability and sustainability. This study demonstrated the potential of hybrid renewable systems to manage seasonal surplus and deficits and offers insights to guide energy planning in Nepal and similar regions.
Involved external institutions
Nepal (NP)
Australia (AU)How to cite
APA:
Poudel, P., Neupane, N., Chaudhary, Y., Devkota, S., Lohani, S.P., & Uprety, B. (2025). Hybrid renewable energy system optimization to mitigate climate vulnerability of Nepal's run-of-river hydro grid. Journal of Energy Storage, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2025.117311
MLA:
Poudel, Prajwol, et al. "Hybrid renewable energy system optimization to mitigate climate vulnerability of Nepal's run-of-river hydro grid." Journal of Energy Storage 129 (2025).
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