Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors

Glas A, Heinisch K (2023)


Publication Type: Journal article, Review article

Publication year: 2023

Journal

Book Volume: 138

Article Number: 102927

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102927

Abstract

Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.

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How to cite

APA:

Glas, A., & Heinisch, K. (2023). Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors. Journal of International Money and Finance, 138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102927

MLA:

Glas, Alexander, and Katja Heinisch. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors." Journal of International Money and Finance 138 (2023).

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