Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households

Dovern J (2024)

Publication Type: Journal article, Original article

Publication year: 2024


Book Volume: 40

Pages Range: 113-123

Journal Issue: 1

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002


Recently, much attention has been devoted to measuring macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. The survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure offers a very efficient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many different expectations at a low cost.

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Dovern, J. (2024). Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002


Dovern, Jonas. "Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households." International Journal of Forecasting 40.1 (2024): 113-123.

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