Mismatches of threat status and actual extinctions in Quaternary reef corals

Raja NB, Lauchstedt A, Pandolfi JM, Kim SW, Budd AF, Kießling W (2020)

Publication Language: English

Publication Type: Conference contribution, Conference Contribution

Publication year: 2020

URI: https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2020AM/webprogram/Paper349407.html

DOI: 10.1130/abs/2020AM-349407

Abstract

Species traits and spatial distributions influence the extinction risk of species as a result of abiotic and biotic change. We performed a comparative assessment of the relationship between traits and extinction risk of reef corals in the modern oceans against Plio-Pleistocene reef corals. We chose the Plio-Pleistocene as most of the corals during this time are still present today and their traits are thus comparable to those of modern corals. As such, the regional extinctions of reef corals during this time, attributed to climate change, may shed light on which traits contribute to the resilience or vulnerability of reef building corals in the face of contemporary ocean warming. We applied predictive modelling using two morphological and two distributional traits of 585 extant reef coral species together with data on extinction risk as reported by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This model was then validated against the fossil corals. Although our model performed well in the prediction of the extinction risk of modern corals (82% match), the match between our modelled extinction risk and observed extinction during the Plio-Pleistocene was not better than random. This suggests that either 1) the IUCN status for reef corals may not reflect true extinction risk, or 2) the drivers of extinction during the Plio-Pleistocene may be considerably different from the conditions currently observed in the oceans. This underlines the need to incorporate fossil data when assessing the vulnerability of extant species to climate change.

Authors with CRIS profile

Nussaibah Begum Raja Schoob Lehrstuhl für Paläoumwelt Andreas Lauchstedt Lehrstuhl für Paläoumwelt Wolfgang Kießling Lehrstuhl für Paläoumwelt

Related research project(s)

CoralTrace - Ein neuer Ansatz zum Verständnis klimainduzierter Riffkrisen Oct. 1, 2019 - Sept. 30, 2022 CoralTrace – A new approach to understanding climate-induced reef crises (coraltrace) FOR 2332: Temperature-related stresses as a unifying principle in ancient extinctions (TERSANE) (FOR 2332) Oct. 1, 2019 - Sept. 30, 2022

Involved external institutions

University of Queensland AU Australia (AU) University of Iowa US United States (USA) (US)

How to cite

APA:

Raja, N.B., Lauchstedt, A., Pandolfi, J.M., Kim, S.W., Budd, A.F., & Kießling, W. (2020). Mismatches of threat status and actual extinctions in Quaternary reef corals. In Proceedings of the GSA 2020 Connects Online.

MLA:

Raja, Nussaïbah Begum, et al. "Mismatches of threat status and actual extinctions in Quaternary reef corals." Proceedings of the GSA 2020 Connects Online 2020.

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