Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes

Kraus H, Seifert G, Luther M (2017)


Publication Type: Conference contribution

Publication year: 2017

Publisher: VDE Verlag GmbH

City/Town: Bonn (Deutschland)

Pages Range: 324-329

Conference Proceedings Title: ETG-Kongress

Event location: Bonn DE

ISBN: 9783800745050

Abstract

Within the scope of this work public available data of the German TSO's are analyzed by stochastic time series methods. After the completion of data preparation and plausibility checks for the years 2010-2015, the analysis of time series is performed by disassembling the time series in their components: trend, season and random process. This procedure is used for annual measurement series as well as measurement series for longer periods. Based on these components the forecasts of the time series up to 2030 are build with Holt-Winters-Method. Finally, the predicted time series are derived and evaluated. To conclude, the theoretical approach of time series analysis offers an alternative way to utilise public data for planning processes in electrical energy systems.

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How to cite

APA:

Kraus, H., Seifert, G., & Luther, M. (2017). Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes. In ETG-Kongress (pp. 324-329). Bonn, DE: Bonn (Deutschland): VDE Verlag GmbH.

MLA:

Kraus, Hermann, Gaby Seifert, and Matthias Luther. "Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes." Proceedings of the Internationaler ETG Congress 2017: Die Energiewende - International ETG Congress 2017: The Energy Transition, Bonn Bonn (Deutschland): VDE Verlag GmbH, 2017. 324-329.

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