Is renewable energy technology trade more or less conflictive than other trade?

Apergi M, Zimmermann E, Weko S, Lilliestam J (2023)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2023

Journal

Energy Policy Elsevier

Book Volume: 177

Article Number: 113538

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113538

Abstract

Renewable energy changes the geopolitics of energy: whereas access to fossil fuel resources were key in the past, control over technology and industry will be key in the future. Consequently, different scholars have predicted that a growing focus on renewables will increase or decrease conflict in the energy sector, with no consensus on which is most likely. Here, we investigate the degree of conflict in renewable energy technology (RET) trade by analyzing data on 7041 trade conflicts 1995–2020, guided by two sets of theory-driven hypotheses. We show that RET trade is associated with more, longer, and more intense trade conflicts than other trade conflicts for 1995–2016. This supports the neorealist, geo-economic view of countries being willing to risk conflict to increase their share of a market rather than avoiding conflicts to increase the overall market size. It also contradicts the view that renewables will reduce conflict: at least in the past and regarding trade, it has increased rather than decreased conflict. For 2017–2020, this trend is reversed and RET trade became significantly less conflictive than other trade. Our findings imply that improved conflict-resolution institutions for RET are needed. We also suggest establishing specific institutions to govern trade in immature technologies.

Authors with CRIS profile

Silvia Weko Lehrstuhl für Sustainability Transition Policy Johan Lilliestam Lehrstuhl für Sustainability Transition Policy

Additional Organisation(s)

Lehrstuhl für Sustainability Transition Policy

Involved external institutions

Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ DE Germany (DE) Universität Potsdam DE Germany (DE)

How to cite

APA:

Apergi, M., Zimmermann, E., Weko, S., & Lilliestam, J. (2023). Is renewable energy technology trade more or less conflictive than other trade? Energy Policy, 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113538

MLA:

Apergi, Maria, et al. "Is renewable energy technology trade more or less conflictive than other trade?" Energy Policy 177 (2023).

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