Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China

Xue L, Ren X, Sun W, Zheng X, Peng Z, Singh B (2022)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2022

Journal

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences Wiley

DOI: 10.1002/mma.8629

Abstract

Tuberculosis was ranked No. 3 among 29 types of infectious diseases in January2022 of Jiangsu Province, in the southeast of China, and it has strong seasonality whose incidence rate has been high in springs and low in winters. This comprehensive study extends the spreading dynamics to the control strategies of TB in Jiangsu Province with time-varying transmission rate, which is the first onein this type. The periodic transmission rate is incorporated to the classic SEIR model with susceptible, latent, infectious, and recovered compartments. The analysis shows that when the basic reproduction numberR0is less than one, the epidemic will eventually disappear but, ifR0is larger than one, the disease may persist with a periodic solution. The R0 value of Jiangsu TB is calculated as 1.297. In addition, the model predicts that the epidemic will not disappear over timeand there will be a major outbreak after certain years. To eradicate TB, this work introduces three control strategies on susceptible, latent, and infectious populations. It turns out that the optimal control solutions can reduce the incidence rate in 2035 by 90% from 2015, the goal of World Health Organization. Simultaneously, we find that the optimal controls have the same seasonality as the transmission rate. This indicates that Jiangsu Province needs to invest more control efforts in springs than in winters. In addition, the cost of control strategies is analyzed in terms of the unit cost, total cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Summarizing all results, we recommend targeting the latent patients, or both latent and infectious individuals, with the transmission rate-synchronized control strength as the most effective control strategy, to mitigate or even eradicate TB disease in Jiangsu Province.

Authors with CRIS profile

Bismark Singh Lehrstuhl für Analytics & Mixed-Integer Optimization

Involved external institutions

Harbin Engineering University (HEU) / 哈尔滨工程大学 CN China (CN) Central Michigan University US United States (USA) (US) Nanjing Medical University / 南京医科大学 CN China (CN)

How to cite

APA:

Xue, L., Ren, X., Sun, W., Zheng, X., Peng, Z., & Singh, B. (2022). Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mma.8629

MLA:

Xue, Ling, et al. "Seasonal transmission dynamics and optimal control strategies for tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province, China." Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences (2022).

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