Recent smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 among individuals with recent respiratory symptoms

Gerkin RC, Ohla K, Veldhuizen MG, Joseph PV, Kelly CE, Bakke AJ, Steele KE, Farruggia MC, Pellegrino R, Pepino MY, Bouysset C, Soler GM, Pereda-Loth V, Dibattista M, Cooper KW, Croijmans I, Di Pizio A, Ozdener MH, Fjaeldstad AW, Lin C, Sandell MA, Singh PB, Brindha VE, Olsson SB, Saraiva LR, Ahuja G, Alwashahi MK, Bhutani S, D’Errico A, Fornazieri MA, Golebiowski J, Hwang LD, Öztürk L, Roura E, Spinelli S, Whitcroft KL, Faraji F, Fischmeister FPS, Heinbockel T, Hsieh JW, Huart C, Konstantinidis I, Menini A, Morini G, Olofsson JK, Philpott CM, Pierron D, Shields VD, Voznessenskaya VV, Albayay J, Altundag A, Bensafi M, Bock MA, Calcinoni O, Fredborg W, Laudamiel C, Lim J, Lundström JN, Macchi A, Meyer P, Moein ST, Santamaría E, Sengupta D, Dominguez PR, Yanik H, Hummel T, Hayes JE, Reed DR, Niv MY, Munger SD, Parma V, Boesveldt S, de Groot JH, Dinnella C, Freiherr J, Laktionova T, Marino S, Monteleone E, Nunez-Parra A, Abdulrahman O, Ritchie M, Thomas-Danguin T, Walsh-Messinger J, Abri RA, Alizadeh R, Bignon E, Cantone E, Cecchini MP, Chen J, Guàrdia MD, Hoover KC, Karni N, Navarro M, Nolden AA, Mazal PP, Rowan NR, Sarabi-Jamab A, Archer NS, Chen B, Di Valerio EA, Feeney EL, Frasnelli J, Hannum ME, Hopkins C, Klein H, Mignot C, Mucignat C, Ning Y, Ozturk EE, Peng M, Saatci O, Sell EA, Yan CH, Alfaro R, Cecchetto C, Coureaud G, Herriman RD, Justice JM, Kaushik PK, Koyama S, Overdevest JB, Pirastu N, Ramirez VA, Roberts SC, Smith BC, Cao H, Wang H, Birindwa PB, Baguma M (2021)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2021

Journal

Book Volume: 46

DOI: 10.1093/chemse/bjaa081

Abstract

In a preregistered, cross-sectional study, we investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19 using a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0–100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n = 4148) or negative (C19−; n = 546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified univariate and multivariate predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Both C19+ and C19− groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean ± SD, C19+: −82.5 ± 27.2 points; C19−: −59.8 ± 37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both univariate and multivariate models (ROC AUC = 0.72). Additional variables provide negligible model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms (e.g., fever). Olfactory recovery within 40 days of respiratory symptom onset was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since respiratory symptom onset. We find that quantified smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 amongst those with symptoms of respiratory illness. To aid clinicians and contact tracers in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of having COVID-19, we propose a novel 0–10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss, the ODoR-19. We find that numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (4 < OR < 10). Once independently validated, this tool could be deployed when viral lab tests are impractical or unavailable.

Authors with CRIS profile

Involved external institutions

Radboud University Nijmegen Netherlands (NL) Università degli Studi di Firenze / University of Florence Italy (IT) Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM) / پژوهشگاه دانش‌های بنیادی Iran, Islamic Republic of (IR) Johns Hopkins University (JHU) United States (USA) (US) Sultan Qaboos University / جامعة السلطان قابوس Oman (OM) Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) / 西安交通大学 China (CN) Temple University United States (USA) (US) Hadassah Medical Center / מרכז רפואי הדסה‎‎ Israel (IL) Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz Austria (AT) Geneva University Hospitals / Hôpitaux universitaires de Genève (HUG) Switzerland (CH) University of Bari Aldo Moro / Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro Italy (IT) University of Queensland Australia (AU) Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main Germany (DE) University of Côte d'Azur / Université Côte d'Azur France (FR) Mersin Üniversitesi (MEÜ) Turkey (TR) Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc (CHU St-Luc) Belgium (BE) San Diego State University United States (USA) (US) Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology Delhi (IIIT-D) India (IN) Universiteit Utrecht (UU) / Utrecht University Netherlands (NL) University City Science Center United States (USA) (US) University College London (UCL) United Kingdom (GB) University of East Anglia United Kingdom (GB) Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati (SISSA) Italy (IT) Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences (KITS) / Karunya University India (IN) Towson University United States (USA) (US) Technische Universität München (TUM) Germany (DE) Sidra Medical and Research Center Qatar (QA) University of California Irvine United States (USA) (US) Helsingin yliopisto / University of Helsinki Finland (FI) UC San Diego School of Medicine United States (USA) (US) Stockholm University / Stockholms universitet Sweden (SE) Hospitalsenheden Vest Denmark (DK) Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées France (FR) Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Greece (GR) AbScent United Kingdom (GB) US National Institutes of Health (NIH) United States (USA) (US) Forschungszentrum Jülich / Research Centre Jülich (FZJ) Germany (DE) Arizona State University (ASU) United States (USA) (US) National Institute of Nursing Research (NINR) United States (USA) (US) Yale University United States (USA) (US) Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) United States (USA) (US) University of Tennessee (UTK) United States (USA) (US) Guangzhou Medical University (GMU) / 广州医科大学 China (CN) University of California, Merced United States (USA) (US) University of Otago New Zealand (NZ) Université Catholique de Bukavu (UCB) Congo, The Democratic Republic of The (CD) University of Edinburgh United Kingdom (GB) University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign United States (USA) (US) Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi (KIYU) Turkey (TR) Guy's and St Thomas' (NHS Foundation Trust) United Kingdom (GB) Hebrew University of Jerusalem Israel (IL) Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR) Canada (CA) University of Padua / Universita degli Studi di Padova Italy (IT) Florida State University (FSU) United States (USA) (US) University of London United Kingdom (GB) CRNL - Center for Research in Neuroscience in Lyon France (FR) Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania United States (USA) (US) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Australia (AU) Universidad de Chile Chile (CL) University of Dayton United States (USA) (US) Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS) / دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران Iran, Islamic Republic of (IR) Universidad de Extremadura Spain (ES) Technische Universität Dresden Germany (DE) Hospital General de Barrio Obrero Paraguay (PY) Institute for Research and Technology in Food and Agriculture / Cataluña Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries (IRTA) Spain (ES) University of Alaska Fairbanks United States (USA) (US) Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) United States (USA) (US) Wageningen University & Research Netherlands (NL) University of Florida United States (USA) (US) Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution (IEE RAS) / Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт проблем экологии и эволюции им.А.Н. Северцова Российской академии наук Russian Federation (RU) Karolinska Institute Sweden (SE) Biruni University / Biruni Üniversitesi Turkey (TR) DreamAir LLC United States (USA) (US) Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II Italy (IT) Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires Argentina (AR) University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass) United States (USA) (US) Indiana University United States (USA) (US) Oregon State University (OSU) United States (USA) (US) Institut national Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement / Agrosup Dijon France (FR) Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL) Brazil (BR) University of Insubria / Università degli Studi dell'Insubria Italy (IT) IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center United States (USA) (US) The Federal University of Technology Akure Nigeria (NG) University of Gastronomic Sciences / Università degli studi di Scienze Gastronomiche di Pollenzo Italy (IT) University of Oslo Norway (NO) RespiraLibre Centro de Otorrinolaringología Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of (VE) Howard University United States (USA) (US) University of Verona / Università degli Studi di Verona Italy (IT) University of Stirling United Kingdom (GB) University College Dublin (UCD) Ireland (IE)

How to cite

APA:

Gerkin, R.C., Ohla, K., Veldhuizen, M.G., Joseph, P.V., Kelly, C.E., Bakke, A.J.,... Baguma, M. (2021). Recent smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 among individuals with recent respiratory symptoms. Chemical Senses, 46. https://doi.org/10.1093/chemse/bjaa081

MLA:

Gerkin, Richard C., et al. "Recent smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 among individuals with recent respiratory symptoms." Chemical Senses 46 (2021).

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