Risk prediction models for melanoma: A systematic review on the heterogeneity in model development and validation

Kaiser I, Pfahlberg AB, Uter W, Heppt M, Veierød MB, Gefeller O (2020)

Publication Type: Journal article, Review article

Publication year: 2020

Journal

Book Volume: 17

Pages Range: 1-25

Article Number: 7919

Journal Issue: 21

DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17217919

Abstract

The rising incidence of cutaneous melanoma over the past few decades has prompted substantial efforts to develop risk prediction models identifying people at high risk of developing melanoma to facilitate targeted screening programs. We review these models, regarding study characteristics, differences in risk factor selection and assessment, evaluation, and validation methods. Our systematic literature search revealed 40 studies comprising 46 different risk prediction models eligible for the review. Altogether, 35 different risk factors were part of the models with nevi being the most common one (n = 35, 78%); little consistency in other risk factors was observed. Results of an internal validation were reported for less than half of the studies (n = 18, 45%), and only 6 performed external validation. In terms of model performance, 29 studies assessed the discriminative ability of their models; other performance measures, e.g., regarding calibration or clinical usefulness, were rarely reported. Due to the substantial heterogeneity in risk factor selection and assessment as well as methodologic aspects of model development, direct comparisons between models are hardly possible. Uniform methodologic standards for the development and validation of risk prediction models for melanoma and reporting standards for the accompanying publications are necessary and need to be obligatory for that reason.

Authors with CRIS profile

Involved external institutions

University of Oslo Norway (NO)

How to cite

APA:

Kaiser, I., Pfahlberg, A.B., Uter, W., Heppt, M., Veierød, M.B., & Gefeller, O. (2020). Risk prediction models for melanoma: A systematic review on the heterogeneity in model development and validation. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(21), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217919

MLA:

Kaiser, Isabelle, et al. "Risk prediction models for melanoma: A systematic review on the heterogeneity in model development and validation." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17.21 (2020): 1-25.

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