German R, Djanatliev A, Maile L, Bazan P, Hackstein H (2020)
Publication Language: English
Publication Status: Submitted
Publication Type: Other publication type
Future Publication Type: Other publication type
Publication year: 2020
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
City/Town: medRxiv
URI: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/04/18/2020.04.14.20063750
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.14.20063750
Open Access Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/04/18/2020.04.14.20063750
This paper presents two epidemiological models that have been developed in order to study the disease dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and exit strategies from the lockdown which has been imposed on many countries world-wide. A strategy is needed such that both the health system is not overloaded letting people die in an uncontrolled way and also such that the majority of people can get back their social contacts as soon as possible. We investigate the potential effects of a combination of measures such as continuation of hygienic constraints after leaving lockdown, isolation of infectious persons, repeated and adaptive short-term contact reductions and also large-scale use of antibody tests in order to know who can be assumed to be immune and participate at public life without constraints. We apply two commonly used modeling approaches: extended SEIR models formulated both as System Dynamics and Agent-Based Simulation, in order to get insight into the disease dynamics of a complete country like Germany and also into more detailed behavior of smaller regions. We confirm the findings of other models that without intervention the consequences of the pandemic can be catastrophic and we extend such findings with effective strategies to overcome the challenge. Based on the modeling assumptions it can be expected that repeated short-term contact reductions will be necessary in the next years to avoid overload of the health system and that on the other side herd immunity can be achieved and antibody tests are an effective way to mitigate the contact reductions for many.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialThis is a simulation studyFunding StatementNo external funding was received for this researchAuthor DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data is given in the paper directly
APA:
German, R., Djanatliev, A., Maile, L., Bazan, P., & Hackstein, H. (2020). Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests. medRxiv: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
MLA:
German, Reinhard, et al. Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests. medRxiv: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, 2020.
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