How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?

Beitrag in einer Fachzeitschrift

Details zur Publikation

Autorinnen und Autoren: Merdes C, von Sydow M, Hahn U
Zeitschrift: Topics in Cognitive Science
Jahr der Veröffentlichung: 2018
ISSN: 1756-8757
Sprache: Englisch


This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence, and compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome, and expectation-based updating. We identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded.

FAU-Autorinnen und Autoren / FAU-Herausgeberinnen und Herausgeber

Merdes, Christoph
Zentralinstitut für Wissenschaftsreflexion und Schlüsselqualifikationen (ZIWIS)

Einrichtungen weiterer Autorinnen und Autoren

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU)


Merdes, C., von Sydow, M., & Hahn, U. (2018). How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know? Topics in Cognitive Science.

Merdes, Christoph, Momme von Sydow, and Ulrike Hahn. "How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?" Topics in Cognitive Science (2018).


Zuletzt aktualisiert 2018-30-08 um 12:38