How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?

Merdes C, von Sydow M, Hahn U (2018)

Publication Language: English

Publication Type: Journal article, Original article

Publication year: 2018

Journal

Topics in Cognitive Science Wiley-Blackwell

DOI: 10.1111/tops.12374

Abstract

This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence, and compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome, and expectation-based updating. We identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded.

Authors with CRIS profile

Christoph Merdes Zentralinstitut für Wissenschaftsreflexion und Schlüsselqualifikationen (ZIWIS)

Involved external institutions

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU) DE Germany (DE)

How to cite

APA:

Merdes, C., von Sydow, M., & Hahn, U. (2018). How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know? Topics in Cognitive Science. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/tops.12374

MLA:

Merdes, Christoph, Momme von Sydow, and Ulrike Hahn. "How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?" Topics in Cognitive Science (2018).

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