Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes
Kraus H, Seifert G, Luther M (2017)
Publication Type: Conference contribution
Publication year: 2017
Publisher: VDE Verlag GmbH
City/Town: Bonn (Deutschland)
Pages Range: 324-329
Conference Proceedings Title: ETG-Kongress
Event location: Bonn
ISBN: 9783800745050
Abstract
Within the scope of this work public available data of the German TSO's are analyzed by stochastic time series methods. After the completion of data preparation and plausibility checks for the years 2010-2015, the analysis of time series is performed by disassembling the time series in their components: trend, season and random process. This procedure is used for annual measurement series as well as measurement series for longer periods. Based on these components the forecasts of the time series up to 2030 are build with Holt-Winters-Method. Finally, the predicted time series are derived and evaluated. To conclude, the theoretical approach of time series analysis offers an alternative way to utilise public data for planning processes in electrical energy systems.
Authors with CRIS profile
Gaby Seifert
Lehrstuhl für Elektrische Energiesysteme
Matthias Luther
Lehrstuhl für Elektrische Energiesysteme
Involved external institutions
How to cite
APA:
Kraus, H., Seifert, G., & Luther, M. (2017). Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes. In ETG-Kongress (pp. 324-329). Bonn, DE: Bonn (Deutschland): VDE Verlag GmbH.
MLA:
Kraus, Hermann, Gaby Seifert, and Matthias Luther. "Zeitreihenanalyse und Prognose mit der Holt-Winters-Methode basierend auf Messwerten des deutschen Übertragungsnetzes." Proceedings of the Internationaler ETG Congress 2017: Die Energiewende - International ETG Congress 2017: The Energy Transition, Bonn Bonn (Deutschland): VDE Verlag GmbH, 2017. 324-329.
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