Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ, Molinos JG, Hoffmann A, Buckley LB, Moore PJ, Brown CJ, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Kappel CV, Kießling W, O'Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Sydeman W, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Poloczanska ES (2014)

Publication Type: Journal article, Original article

Publication year: 2014

Journal

Nature Nature Publishing Group

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group

Book Volume: 507

Pages Range: 492-495

Journal Issue: 7493

DOI: 10.1038/nature12976

Abstract

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Authors with CRIS profile

Wolfgang Kießling Lehrstuhl für Paläoumwelt

Involved external institutions

University of Western Australia (UWA) AU Australia (AU) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) AU Australia (AU) University of California US United States (USA) (US) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill US United States (USA) (US) The University of Melbourne AU Australia (AU) Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS) GB United Kingdom (GB) University of Queensland AU Australia (AU) University of British Columbia CA Canada (CA) University of Texas at Austin US United States (USA) (US) Farallon Institute US United States (USA) (US) University of the Sunshine Coast AU Australia (AU) Aberystwyth University GB United Kingdom (GB)

How to cite

APA:

Burrows, M.T., Schoeman, D.S., Richardson, A.J., Molinos, J.G., Hoffmann, A., Buckley, L.B.,... Poloczanska, E.S. (2014). Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature, 507(7493), 492-495. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12976

MLA:

Burrows, Michael T., et al. "Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity." Nature 507.7493 (2014): 492-495.

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