Validation of a risk prediction model for early chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: Data from the German/Austrian Diabetes Prospective Follow-up registry.

Kress S, Bramlage P, Holl RW, Möller CD, Mühldorfer S, Reindel J, Seufert J, Landgraf R, Merker L, Meyhöfer SM, Danne T, Fasching P, Mertens PR, Wanner C, Lanzinger S (2023)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2023

Journal

Diabetes Obesity & Metabolism Wiley-Blackwell

Book Volume: 25

Pages Range: 776-784

Journal Issue: 3

DOI: 10.1111/dom.14925

Abstract

AIM: To validate a recently proposed risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Subjects from the German/Austrian Diabetes Prospective Follow-up (DPV) registry with T2D, normoalbuminuria, an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 60 ml/min/1.73m2 or higher and aged 39-75 years were included. Prognostic factors included age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and HbA1c. Subjects were categorized into low, moderate, high and very high-risk groups. Outcome was CKD occurrence. RESULTS: Subjects (n = 10 922) had a mean age of 61 years, diabetes duration of 6 years, BMI of 31.7 kg/m2 , HbA1c of 6.9% (52 mmol/mol); 9.1% had diabetic retinopathy and 16.3% were smokers. After the follow-up (~59 months), 37.4% subjects developed CKD. The area under the curve (AUC; unadjusted base model) was 0.58 (95% CI 0.57-0.59). After adjustment for diabetes and follow-up duration, the AUC was 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70), indicating improved discrimination. After follow-up, 15.0%, 20.1%, 27.7% and 40.2% patients in the low, moderate, high and very high-risk groups, respectively, had developed CKD. Increasing risk score correlated with increasing cumulative risk of incident CKD over a median of 4.5 years of follow-up (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model achieved moderate discrimination but good calibration in a German/Austrian T2D population, suggesting that the model may be relevant for determining CKD risk.

Involved external institutions

Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg DE Germany (DE) IPPMed - Institut für Pharmakologie und Präventive Medizin GmbH DE Germany (DE) Universität Ulm DE Germany (DE) Bürger­hospital Frankfurt DE Germany (DE) Klinikum Bayreuth DE Germany (DE) Klinikum Karlsburg DE Germany (DE) Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg DE Germany (DE) LMU Klinikum DE Germany (DE) Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg DE Germany (DE) Deutsches Zentrum für Diabetesforschung e.V. (DZD) DE Germany (DE) Kinderkrankenhaus auf der Bult DE Germany (DE) Wiener Gesundheitsverbund Kliniken AT Austria (AT) Vinzentius-Krankenhaus Landau DE Germany (DE)

How to cite

APA:

Kress, S., Bramlage, P., Holl, R.W., Möller, C.D., Mühldorfer, S., Reindel, J.,... Lanzinger, S. (2023). Validation of a risk prediction model for early chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: Data from the German/Austrian Diabetes Prospective Follow-up registry. Diabetes Obesity & Metabolism, 25(3), 776-784. https://doi.org/10.1111/dom.14925

MLA:

Kress, Stephan, et al. "Validation of a risk prediction model for early chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: Data from the German/Austrian Diabetes Prospective Follow-up registry." Diabetes Obesity & Metabolism 25.3 (2023): 776-784.

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