A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles

Warth J, von der Gracht H, Darkow IL (2013)

Publication Type: Journal article, Original article

Subtype: other

Publication year: 2013

Journal

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Elsevier

Book Volume: 80

Pages Range: 566-583

Journal Issue: 4

URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162512000807

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.005

Abstract

In this paper, we present a novel approach for generating scenarios in multi-stakeholder environments. In order to address one of the most imperative environmental and societal challenges related to mobility, we explore the future of electric drive vehicles (EDVs). Since many different stakeholders are involved in the socio-technological transition from internal combustion engines (ICEs) to EDVs, we present a dissent-based scenario development process, which uses the Delphi technique for data generation. In total, 140 experts from 15 stakeholder groups participated in this German-based survey and assessed controversial projections for 2030. Results reveal a considerably high degree of dissent. In order to cope with different viewpoints in the scenario development process, we utilize a novel 5-step dissent analysis for further insights into possible futures. Thus, we account for potential differences among stakeholder groups (step 1), the effect of a desirability bias (step 2), as well as the impact of outliers (step 3) and bipolarity (step 4) in the survey results. Finally, we identify different clusters of experts through latent class analysis (step 5). Based on the results of the dissent analysis, seven partially conflicting multi-stakeholder scenarios for the future of EDVs in 2030 are developed.

Authors with CRIS profile

Heiko von der Gracht Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Supply Chain Management

Involved external institutions

Universität Bremen DE Germany (DE)

How to cite

APA:

Warth, J., von der Gracht, H., & Darkow, I.-L. (2013). A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 566-583. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.005

MLA:

Warth, Johannes, Heiko von der Gracht, and Inga-Lena Darkow. "A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80.4 (2013): 566-583.

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