How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?

Journal article
(Original article)

Publication Details

Author(s): Merdes C, von Sydow M, Hahn U
Journal: Topics in Cognitive Science
Publication year: 2018
ISSN: 1756-8757
Language: English


This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence, and compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome, and expectation-based updating. We identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded.

FAU Authors / FAU Editors

Merdes, Christoph
Zentralinstitut für Wissenschaftsreflexion und Schlüsselqualifikationen (ZIWIS)

External institutions with authors

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU)

How to cite

Merdes, C., von Sydow, M., & Hahn, U. (2018). How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know? Topics in Cognitive Science.

Merdes, Christoph, Momme von Sydow, and Ulrike Hahn. "How Good is Your Evidence and How Would You Know?" Topics in Cognitive Science (2018).


Last updated on 2018-30-08 at 12:38