Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900.

Zhang Z, Tian H, Cazelles B, Kausrud KL, Bräuning A, Guo F, Stenseth NC (2010)


Publication Language: English

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2010

Journal

Publisher: Royal Society, The

Edited Volumes: Proceedings of the Royal Society Ser

City/Town: .

Book Volume: 277

Pages Range: 3745–3753

Journal Issue: 1701

URI: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20630883

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0890

Open Access Link: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royprsb/277/1701/3745.full.pdf

Abstract

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10-1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

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How to cite

APA:

Zhang, Z., Tian, H., Cazelles, B., Kausrud, K.L., Bräuning, A., Guo, F., & Stenseth, N.C. (2010). Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences, 277(1701), 3745–3753. https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.0890

MLA:

Zhang, Zhibin, et al. "Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900." Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences 277.1701 (2010): 3745–3753.

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