Heterogenität makroökonomischer Erwartungen: Welche Rolle spielen individuelle historische Erfahrungen, das örtliche Umfeld und sozioökonomische Faktoren?

Third party funded individual grant

Project Details

Project leader:
Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Project members:
Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Contributing FAU Organisations:
Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Ökonometrie

Funding source: DFG-Einzelförderung / Sachbeihilfe (EIN-SBH)
Start date: 01/07/2019
End date: 30/06/2022

Abstract (technical / expert description):

Expectations are at the heart of modern macroeconomic theory. The
commonly made assumptions of full information rational expectations
(Muth, 1961) or its recently proposed variants with information
rigidities are simplistic and do not allow for genuine heterogeneity of
expectations. In particular, they do not allow individual experiences of
households or firms to affect their expectations of aggregate
macroeconomic variables. Similarly, the role of individual experiences
in the formation of financial expectations and decision making is not
yet well understood. This research project will provide empirical
analyses based on survey data to enhance our understanding of how
individual experiences of private households or firms influence their
expectations. This evidence will help relaxing the commonly made
assumption in economic models that expectations are formed by a process
that is invariant across time and individuals. The results of this
research project will be useful for both academic economists and
researchers from other disciplines that investigate expectation
formation processes as well as for monetary policy makers. The project
contributes to the ongoing quest in macroeconomics for a better
understanding of the relevance of heterogeneity, in particular of
expectations, across households and firms. Overall, the project will
lead to a better understanding of survey data on macroeconomic
expectations and, thus, will help to properly interpret such surveys.
All of these issues are of first-order importance for the conduct of
monetary policy because modern central banking relies heavily on
expectations, both as a source of information and as a tool to steer the

External Partners

Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e. V. / ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Last updated on 2019-21-05 at 10:37