Wer profitiert vom Wohnungsneubau?

Third party funded individual grant

Project Details

Project leader:
Dr. Andreas Mense

Project members:
Dr. Andreas Mense

Contributing FAU Organisations:
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Sozialpolitik

Funding source: DFG-Einzelförderung / Sachbeihilfe (EIN-SBH) (2.6 - Sachbeihilfen)
Start date: 01/07/2019
End date: 30/06/2021

Research Fields

Urban Economics
Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Sozialpolitik

Abstract (technical / expert description):

Private markets provide housing to the poor primarily through the process of filtering. According to this theory, a new home supplied to the market triggers a series of moves. First, a household moves into the new unit, leaving vacant an older unit. This in turn allows another household to move. In this way, a number of households can move up the housing quality ladder. If the process does not stop at some point, new housing supply reduces demand for run-down, low-quality dwellings and thereby lifts pressure off the bottom of the rent distribution. This improves housing conditions for the poor. It may be, however, that property owners find it beneficial to upgrade vacant moderate-quality units, so that rents at the lower end remain unaffected. It is thus an empirical question which parts of the rent distribution react to new housing supply.
This project aims to investigate empirically how and when the supply of new housing units affects the lower tail of the rent distribution, using instrumental variable quantile regression. It also seeks to analyze heterogeneity in the process by setting up a simple filtering model. The model shall explicitly deal with the effects of moving costs and landlords’ propensity to upgrade moderate quality units. Its predictions shall be tested empirically by exploiting differences over space in household mobility and the propensity to upgrade.
A major innovation of the project is the identification of exogenous housing supply shocks on the local level through unforeseen weather events. In preliminary work, I show that a particularly rainy July in a given location causes substantial decreases in local end-of-year housing completions, potentially because they prolong drying time of unfinished buildings. Most of these unfinished units are completed about ten to twelve months later. This implies that such weather shocks lead to sizable and economically meaningful changes in local new housing supply.

Last updated on 2019-12-07 at 10:48