Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Jonas Dovern (born 1980) studied Econometrics at Maastricht University between 2001 and 2005. Subsequently he followed the Advanced Study Program in International Economic Policy Research at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy until 2006. He was also a research associate in the research area „Macroeconomic Policy under Market Imperfections“ and in the Forecasting Center at the Kiel Institute between 2005 and 2008. He obtained his doctoral degree from the University of Kiel in 2009. In 2009 he founded Kiel Economics, a private consulting firm for macroeconomic expert reports and statistical forecast models, and served as managing director until 2013. During this time he was also an adviser to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and the Kiel Institute. In 2013 he became Assistent Professor of Macroeconomics at Heidelberg University where he served until 2019. In 2016 he served eight months as an Interim Professor of Economics at RWTH Aachen University and in 2018 he spent one month at LMU Munich as a visiting researcher.

Since April 2019 Jonas Dovern has been Chair of Statistics and Econometrics at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg. He is also a member of the CESifo Research Network.

Jonas Dovern’s main fields of research are time series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics. He is in particular interested in the statistical analysis of heterogeneity in macroeconomic expectations and in econometric methods for evaluating time series forecasts.




Organisation


Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Ökonometrie



Project lead


Heterogenität makroökonomischer Erwartungen: Welche Rolle spielen individuelle historische Erfahrungen, das örtliche Umfeld und sozioökonomische Faktoren?
Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
(01/07/2019 - 30/06/2022)


Project member


Heterogenität makroökonomischer Erwartungen: Welche Rolle spielen individuelle historische Erfahrungen, das örtliche Umfeld und sozioökonomische Faktoren?
Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
(01/07/2019 - 30/06/2022)


Publications ()

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Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2019). Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, forthcoming. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12385
Dovern, J., & Hartmann, M. (2017). Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios. Empirical Economics, 53(1), 63-77. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x
Dovern, J., & Jannsen, N. (2017). Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 760-769. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003
Dovern, J., & Kenny, G. (2017). The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?
Rickels, W., Dovern, J., & Quaas, M. (2016). Beyond fisheries: Common-pool resource problems in oceanic resources and services. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 40, 37-49. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.013
Dovern, J., Feldkircher, M., & Huber, F. (2016). Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 70, 86-100. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.006
Rickels, W., Dovern, J., Hoffmann, J., Quaas, M.F., Schmidt, J.O., & Visbeck, M. (2016). Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union. Earth's Future, 4(5), 252-267. https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000353
Dovern, J., & Manner, H. (2016). Order Invariant Density Evaluation for High-Dimensional Systems.
Dovern, J. (2015). A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data. European Economic Review, 80, 16-35. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.009
Dovern, J., & Huber, F. (2015). Global prediction of recessions. Economics letters, 133, 81-84. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022

Last updated on 2019-10-04 at 15:12