A machine learning framework for interpretable predictions in patient pathways: The case of predicting ICU admission for patients with symptoms of sepsis (forthcoming)

Zilker S, Weinzierl S, Kraus M, Zschech P, Matzner M (2024)

Publication Type: Journal article, Original article

Publication year: 2024

Journal

Health Care Management Science Springer Verlag (Germany)

Abstract

Proactive analysis of patient pathways helps healthcare providers anticipate treatment-related risks, identify outcomes, and allocate resources. Machine learning (ML) can leverage a patient’s complete health history to make informed decisions about future events. However, previous work has mostly relied on so-called black-box models, which are unintelligible to humans, making it difficult for clinicians to apply such models. Our work introduces PatWay-Net, an ML framework designed for interpretable predictions of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with symptoms of sepsis. We propose a novel type of recurrent neural network and combine it with multi-layer perceptrons to process the patient pathways and produce predictive yet interpretable results. We demonstrate its utility through a comprehensive dashboard that visualizes patient health trajectories, predictive outcomes, and associated risks. Our evaluation includes both predictive performance – where PatWay-Net outperforms standard models such as decision trees, random forests, and gradient-boosted decision trees – and clinical utility, validated through structured interviews with clinicians. By providing improved predictive accuracy along with interpretable and actionable insights, PatWay-Net serves as a valuable tool for healthcare decision support in the critical case of patients with symptoms of sepsis.

Authors with CRIS profile

Sandra Zilker Lehrstuhl für Digital Industrial Service Systems Sven Weinzierl Lehrstuhl für Digital Industrial Service Systems Mathias Kraus Juniorprofessur für Data Analytics Patrick Zschech Assistant Professorship for Intelligent Information Systems Martin Matzner Lehrstuhl für Digital Industrial Service Systems

How to cite

APA:

Zilker, S., Weinzierl, S., Kraus, M., Zschech, P., & Matzner, M. (2024). A machine learning framework for interpretable predictions in patient pathways: The case of predicting ICU admission for patients with symptoms of sepsis (forthcoming). Health Care Management Science.

MLA:

Zilker, Sandra, et al. "A machine learning framework for interpretable predictions in patient pathways: The case of predicting ICU admission for patients with symptoms of sepsis (forthcoming)." Health Care Management Science (2024).

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